Now that the dust has settled down on the supreme court ruling and everyone is buckling up to implement the mandate, I wanted to take a moment and share what the future could really hold…
The 2020’s
Consolidation is the key, the business model of healthcare insurance is going to change so fast that many smaller payers will just not be able to catch up. The big eat the small will be the norm. Technology supremacy will rule, ability of larger payers in invest in ICD-10, consumer centricity and develop alternate business models to empower the retail consumer will make the difference.
Smaller payers (<1M members) have only one option in the long run – sell out! By 2020 there could be 5-7 national insurance providers left. It seems like every commercial payer currently is just going to be bought out.
The 2040’s
Beyond exchanges, retail empowerment, ACOs and all the terms you have heard – it is a fully consolidated industry ready to turn social. When government runs supreme and can twist and turn laws at whim, the stock prices of the consolidated insurers is going to be on a turbulent journey. Investor fatigue is going to lead to the stocks being dumped and the insurers losing market capital faster than the decent from Mt. everest.
Net outcome, a bail out request. The govt will step in and turn healthcare in a UK kind of system. Obama – Mission Accomplished.
The real winner of the healthcare reform is going to the the government !