Women are likely to be replenishing their wardrobes in the third quarter, according to a forecast released Tuesday by IBM.
In-store sales of women’s clothing is expected to climb 9.2 percent, according to the IBM analytics-based predictions. Other categories expected to jump over the next three months include children’s clothing ( 6.2 percent), footwear (5.2 percent) and “other clothing” (7.5 percent), which includes exercise apparel, outerwear and formalwear, according to the forecast.
“As the economy starts to come back, there is some pent-up demand for women in the clothing area because they haven’t been spending on themselves as they have others,” said Ellen Davis, senior vice president of the National Retail Federation at a briefing for the forecast.
Sales of men’s clothing, on the other hand, is expected to decline by 6.7 percent, according to the report. “Men bought very heavily over the last year. … Maybe men bought, and they were kind of finished,” said Michael Haydock, IBM chief scientist and author of the report.
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“This forecast reflects a growing trend: Consumers are ready to shop,” Jill Puleri, global retail leader for IBM Global Business Services, said in a statement. “Consumers will be stocking up on items that they need, but still earmarking products for later in the season. For retailers to effectively tap into consumer desires, they need to deliver timely, hyper-personalized promotions that will compel consumers to instinctively act on a deal.”
At the same time, Haydock said consumers will be managing how they spend their money and spreading out their purchases over time: buying for example, notebooks and pencils in July, clothing in August and waiting until September to buy a new computer. “Consumers are managing their checkbooks,” he said.
The report comes on the heels of recent dismal consumer spending numbers. Recent months have been tricky for retailers as sales stalled in June, marking the third consecutive month of falling retail sales, according to data released this week from the National Retail Federation.
“People have money,” said Haydock, and retailers are wondering “how to pry that money free.” “People’s sentiments are going up and down, it’s not on auto pilot by any means,” he said.
While apparel sales are expected to get a bump over the next few months, overall spending in the second half likely will slow, according to Haydock.
“People are deferring their purchases because they aren’t getting the right promotions,” said Haydock, pointing to the IBM Social Sentiment Index, which tracks and analyzes large volumes of social media data to assess public opinions.
In Chicago, social media buzz around back-to-school shopping fell 3 percent from last year, according to the IBM report.
At the same time, Chicago saw a 15 percent decline in buzz on platforms such as Facebook and Twitter around promotions. This compares to a bump in social media chatter around back-to-school shopping and sales and in New York. The difference could be that Chicago consumers are “still on vacation and do not seem as focused on fall shopping,” according to the report.