An acquisition of Aetna Inc. by CVS Health Corp. may meet little resistance from federal regulators under the Trump administration, speeding the deal toward completion, two analysts say.
A deal between Aetna and CVS could be announced within days, Dow Jones is reporting.
Aetna may have to divest itself of $7.7 million in Medicare Part D customers to avoid federal antitrust concerns, Ana Gupte, an analyst at Leerink, said Tuesday.
However, that would reduce the number of Aetna members steered to CVS stores and a loss in earnings at the pharmacy benefit management and retail businesses, she said in a note to investors.
Observers, pointing to the announcement Monday by the U.S. Department of Justice that it’s suing to block AT&T’s takeover of Time Warner, raised other antitrust issues in the CVS-Aetna deal, Gupte said. Higher costs for rivals in the pharmacy benefit management and retail businesses were cited, she said.
The Department of Justice said the AT&T-Time Warner deal would harm competition.
David Larsen, also an analyst at Leerink, wrote in a note published Monday that regulators may seek “remedies” such as divestiture before a potential CVS-Aetna deal is approved, but “we believe that ultimately the transaction would be approved.”
Overlap in other areas is “minimal,” he said.
“We also believe that the Trump administration is more business friendly, and regulators may view a CVS-Aetna combination as a way to continue to put pressure on manufacturers and drug prices,” Larsen said.
Neither CVS, based in Woonsocket, R.I., nor Aetna, based in Hartford, has commented on reports of an acquisition. Several media outlets have reported that a deal could be made final before the end of November. Aetna announced earlier this year that it plans to move its headquarters to New York City.
Federal regulators blocked Aetna’s attempt last year to buy rival Humana Inc. Aetna sought the Louisville, Ky., insurer to expand its presence in the lucrative Medicare Advantage business. Regulators said the acquisition would stifle competition.
A merger with CVS provides a different avenue for expansion, joining Aetna with a business where it does not have a presence.
Experts say bringing insurance and pharmacy under one corporate umbrella has the potential to cut costs between insurers and pharmacies, eliminating the so-called “middleman.”
Others see a CVS-Aetna deal as a defensive move as the two companies try to blunt likely competition from Amazon Inc., which is getting into the pharmacy business.
Larsen said an Aetna-CVS deal transaction would be a “good defensive move” that could prevent Amazon from disrupting CVS’ relationship with one of its largest clients.
Analyst George Hill of RBC Capital Markets does not see a CVS-Aetna merger as defensive. On the contrary, he said, the two companies are going on the offensive. A combination would create a different type of business that accounts for escalating health care costs and near-universal beneficiary coverage, or about 90 percent, in the U.S., he said.
“From that perspective, a vertically-integrated, consumer-centric value-based care model makes strong strategic sense and is not a short-sighted response to fears of Amazon entering the pharmacy space,” Hill said.
Shares of Aetna closed at $176.45, up less than 1 percent, and still short of the more than $200 CVS is reported to be offering as a purchase price.
Date: Nov 23, 2017