More reports on Monday about the iWatch, a rumored smartwatch from Apple Inc. with some computing capabilities, have investors hoping that the much-anticipated Dick Tracy-like device will come out this year.
But investors, as well as Apple AAPL -0.27% fans, might actually want to reel in their expectations on timing, and what exactly such a device may be able to do, if and when the still officially unconfirmed iWatch comes out.
The most recent batch of stories were fueled by a report from Bloomberg News that such a device could be more profitable than the long-awaited Apple TV set, which is still reportedly in development. The report noted that Apple has about 100 product designers working on the project with Apple design head Jony Ive, who has had his team visit watch factories and analyze rival watches. Read Bloomberg on Apple’s iWatch.
An interesting wrinkle in the Apple rumor mill, however, was an earlier report by Bloomberg in which the president of Corning Inc.’s GLW +1.13% glass technologies division, a key Apple supplier that is developing flexible glass, said that it will probably take at least three years before the industry starts to make flexible displays with Corning’s Willow glass product. James Clappin, the Corning division president, told Bloomberg in Beijing that its Willow glass will appear in some “simple products” this year, such as a flexible barrier for solar panels or as a thin film behind touch panels. Read Bloomberg interview with Corning.
A representative of Corning conveyed a similar view to MarketWatch, noting that products with “conformable displays” may appear as early as late 2013, with the solar industry among the early adopters of this technology. And large-scale manufacturing of such glass is another issue.
“Willow glass can be produced by the conventional individual sheet manufacturing process or through a new, high-temperature, continuous “roll-to-roll” process, which dramatically reduces production costs,” Corning told MarketWatch in a statement. “Developing a manufacturing and supply ecosystem that supports this new process is a major undertaking which will take several years; the actual timing is not known today.”
The company declined to comment on whether Corning has had any contact with Apple regarding its possible use of Willow glass. Apple did not respond to a request for comment.
Apple, of course, is famous for not disclosing any information about products in development, and it would not take kindly to any supplier who gave out advance information on its products. Whether or not Corning’s comments could actually apply to the timing of anything Apple is working on is impossible to say at this point. Its comments seemed to be generally targeted to how the overall industry would use flexible glass.
“We know that Willow glass is a new product,” said Paul Saffo, head of foresight at Discern Analytics. “Last time I checked, flexible glass had never existed before. As a new product it’s going to be full of wrinkles and surprises….It looks like a typical new technology story.”
But he added that of course, it would be in Apple’s best interests to go along with Corning and keep expectations low. “If expectations get out of line, it hurts the stock, and takes away from the fun of the big announcement.”
Still, whether or not Clappin at Corning is being cagey because Apple is a big customer, or because of the experimental nature of a radical new product like flexible glass, it means that investors should probably tread with some caution and not have high expectations of the first iteration of the iWatch, if indeed it does appear this year. The Verge which also weighed in on Monday, reporting that Apple will rework its full mobile operating system, iOS, for the project, because of battery life issues. Read: The Verge and its story on Apple’s watch will run iOS.
Some pundits are not quite as optimistic as to whether a watch that can connect to your smartphone will be the next big thing for Apple and the computer industry. Read: Apple and the iWatch and the next frontier?
“I’m not dismissing it, but most of their other big products like iPhones or iPods or iPads were based on rebuilding a new category in a way that was advantageous to Apple,” said Steve Baker, an analyst with the NPD Group. “I’m not sure why I need a watch to tell me that I got a message on my phone. Who knows. There are certainly million of watches sold…I just don’t quite get it yet.”
Another issue, which could either help or hinder Apple, is that wearing a watch has become somewhat of an antiquated notion, as more people, especially the younger generation, use smartphones to keep track of time.
“Whether a product comes out or not, to me anecdotally, it would reverse a current trend among 20-somethings,” said Saffo of Discern. “Students at Stanford don’t wear watches. All of a sudden, wearing a wrist watch is a bit like when I was a kid watching my grandfather pulling out a pocket watch.” Apple would have to make wearing watches very cool again.
On Monday, Apple’s shares hit a 52-week low of $419, despite the flurry of new reports and rumors on the iWatch. For now, at least, some investors are wisely discounting the hype, until something more tangible appears.