The fate of the bill on American Health Care Act or AHCA – if it continues on to the Senate or returns back to the house depends upon its financial analysis which would be released on Wednesday by the Congressional Budget Office.
According to a report from Bloomberg Politics, House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., told reporters that he is confident the AHCA will meet all the requirements required for it to qualify under a special budget reconciliation process in the Senate. CBO score would be the main factor in deciding its fate.
The three major impact CBO score will make on the AHCA is mentioned below:
1. The minimum requirement for the bill is to reduce the federal deficit by at least $2 billion over 10 years to meet budget reconciliation requirements:
As per Bloomberg Politics. If the CBO detects that AHCA is able to reduce the deficit minimum by $2 billion then it should also meet the additional requirements to get qualified for reconciliation, including restrictions on non-budgetary provisions or provisions with little fiscal impact. The March score of CBO for the AHCA expected the bill to reduce deficit by $150 billion over the next decade.
2. The last minute amendments to the AHCA can reverse its effects which can even add to the deficit raising the anticipation of the CBO estimation:
One of the biggest amendment for AHCA was in MacArthur amendment with the addition of a waiver program. It would allow states to seek federal waivers to opt out of the ACA’s essential health benefits requirement and its community rating rule, which bars insurers from charging more based on beneficiary age, gender, and health status.
3. Bloomberg says the impact CBO’s estimate will create on insurance coverage has kept much waiting:
It was projected in the previous release of AHCA that 14 million people would lose health insurance in the first year and up to 24 million would lose coverage by 2026. Though potential increase or decrease of coverage numbers hold a lot of weight politically it won’t have any effect on the budget reconciliation process.
Wednesday’s score of CBO on the AHCA will be a deciding factor that will impact many.
Date: May 25, 2017